Tulum is booming on both the tourism and real estate construction fronts. There is construction happening everywhere with very appealing architecture. But, is Tulum real estate investing good idea? We’ll explore this in detail and see that there is oversupply in the Tulum real estate market market.

I obtained permanent residency in Mexico, specifically in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo and must admit that I quite like it here.

Mexico’s Economy: Macro Overview

Mexico has attractive demographics

With a fertility rate a bit above two children per woman, Mexico ranks higher than any Western country. It is quite visible when traveling around the country.

People tend to forget that Mexico is an absolute ogre population-wise, with its 128 million inhabitants. It is the second most populous Latin American country after Brazil, with 210 million people, and well ahead of the third, Colombia, with 50 million people.

A large economy that has been growing steadily, but somewhat sluggishly

The most objective way to look at the country’s growth is on a per capita PPP basis, to capture how much people are really gaining from GDP growth.

These numbers are decent, but in all honesty, they are a bit disappointing when considering the (mostly) free trade agreement with the US and Canada. A massive country with such a surplus of affordable labor, should objectively be doing better.

A slightly disappointing current account for such a large manufacturer

Again, with the free trade agreement with the US, Mexico should be doing better.

This is in spite of booming remittances

Remittances from Mexicans working in the US represent 4% of Mexican GDP, and are a lifeboat for many families. Uncle Juan in Oakland is more of a safety net than the Mexican government. It also demonstrates the hard work of Mexicans in the US, considering the amount of Mexicans did not grow by such an amount proportionally over time.

Clearly, Mexicans in the US have been gradually moving up the food chain in terms of income.

Mexico is a country with very decent government finances

In a world of government debt to GDPs in the Western world of mostly 100%+, Mexico’s figures are quite sobering.

Near-shoring in Mexico, a bedrock of the Mexican middle class

The world is bifurcating between East and West, with a third, more neutral block in-between just as during the Cold War (Mexico is in this latter block).

The inevitable result of all of this drama is that re-shoring will become a top priority for Western companies and governments. After having outsourced most of its production of goods to China over the past 20 years, the US has found itself in a situation where it must re-shore production and reduce its exposure to China.

The collective West installed a new sanctions regime – “If we don’t agree with you, we sanction you and seize your assets overseas”, which it did to Russia and its foreign reserves. China now knows how the collective West behaves, and will seek to create massive damage to Western supply chains in case of increased tensions.

Western companies, whether they like it or not, will have to diversify away from China. A lot of this production with go to the likes to Vietnam, etc. But an obvious candidate is just across the border. Mexico will be in a prime position to massively benefit from this de-globalization and re-shoring trend.

This is a net positive for the Mexican economy, which will translate into more local tourism internally and investment in the local real estate sector.

In a world of natural resources supply shortages, Mexico is a prime producer

This should greatly bolster Mexico’s current account deficit thanks to exports, and render Mexican industry more competitive.

Mexico is flush with natural resources. It is the world’s biggest silver producer and a top 10 miner of gold and copper, as well as lead and zinc. It is also trying to develop its energy-transition Lithium deposits.

Importantly, in spite of government efforts to increase environmental and regulatory checks & balances on mining operations, Mexico is the 4th biggest recipient of mining foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world.

Mexico’s energy policy is a mixed bag. It is a net crude oil exporter, but net importer of refined petroleum products, and a net importer of natural gas, though it has substantial reserves. It is the world’s 13th largest oil producer and has the world’s sixth-largest technically recoverable shale gas resources.

For many years the oil & gas industry was not prioritized, was nor incentivized to explore, and the large state-owned company PEMEX was used for political gain.

The government is now trying to heavily encourage oil & gas exploration. This is undoubtedly the right decision, but it will take time for results to be visible. The current energy crisis will absolutely be a catalyst for faster action.

But as often in its history, Mexico is also good at shooting itself in the foot. The government has been talking of nationalization of some natural resources, etc. Again, the headlines are scarier than the actual laws being passed, but it is nevertheless a net negative to be implementing such measures.

Overall, I believe that re-shoring will be much more of a net positive than the negative elements linked to mining. I expect foreign direct investment to continue to be very strong in Mexico.

Mexico elected a far-left government

In the presidential elections far-left candidate Claudia Sheinbaum was elected.

She ran on an anti-mining, higher tax and more state involvement platform, which does not bode well for Mexico.

Having said this Mexico is a complex country. Just as the government does not have the monopoly on violence (which it shares with cartels), it also does not completely control the economy. In effect, the Mexican economy hums along in spite of Government.

Mexico has an economy that will muddle through, but with pockets of excellence

I don’t expect explosive growth in Mexico, just the usual below potential, but steady growth that Mexico is used to.

The pockets of excellence driving the Mexican economy will undoubtedly be in the North close to the US border in wealthy cities such as Monterrey, which benefit in full force from the near-shoring trend.

However, I believe that Playa del Carmen, Tulum, and Puerto Vallarta will also be key beneficiaries as the rising middle- and upper-classes of Mexico will seek lifestyle housing, investment properties, and themselves spend time in the nicest resort/beach towns of Mexico.

The Tulum real estate market

Tulum is not cheap if you want to buy an interesting apartment in one of the central areas. Tulum is more expensive than Mexico City, and together with Cancun and Playa del Carmen Tulum is the second most expensive area in Latin America after Punta del Este in Uruguay.

But unlike these other Latin American cities, prices are much more heavily linked to the North American market, as this is the main target market, as well as Mexican industrialists who are themselves very tied to the American economy.

So yes, absolute prices are expensive relative to the region, but it’s a completely different market. Par rapport à Playa del Carmen, l’immobilier à Tulum est environ 30 % moins cher.

The Tulum real estate market crash

It’s important to segment the market when discussing the real estate market in Tulum.

The construction industry in Tulum

The construction industry in Tulum is doing amazing. There are innumerable projects, infrastructure development, etc. You can observe it when driving around Tulum; absolute boom-town.

Sales by developers in Tulum

Sales are going well. The projects look great, offer amazing lifestyle, and in many cases some degree of payment plans. Buying remotely is easy so a lot of people buy them up especially with the “promises” of high returns.

The actual rental market in Tulum

There is a clear case of oversupply in the Tulum rental market. For a few years both tourism and supply of rentals were booming, and the question was which one would slow down first. It turns out supply of rentals is now increasing faster than tourism.

The result is that rental yields have absolutely crashed. Condos are hard to let both on the long-term and short-term markets due to an ongoing price war and supply glut. Only in some segments, high-end villas, can one get net rental yields of about 8%. Otherwise, expect your rental income to just cover your expenses.

Luxury villas in Tulum are doing well on the rental market as there is limited supply, Tulum is premium, and Tulum airport is attracting a high-end clientele that did not want to deal with a 2-hour drive from Cancun airport.

The resale real estate market in Tulum

Buying condos on the resale market is now a nice opportunity. Investors who had bought Tulum real estate being promised very high returns by developers are now disappointed. Many are looking to sell.

The problem is that developers offer high commissions to agents, and selling off-plan is easier than dealing with a resale market transaction, so agents rarely orient their clients to the resale market, especially as the commissions are much smaller.

But if you get a Tulum realtor such as Luigi who is willing to find resale market listings, there are great deals to be made as the buyers are few, and the sellers keen.

The play here is twofold:

1. If you are a lifestyle investor, you can find great deals on the secondary market without having to wait for the construction of a new condo.
2. If you are a long-term investor, you can buy cheap, rent out to cover expenses, and wait long term for the market to improve thanks to multiple catalysts in place. It won’t happen overnight.

5 Long-Term Catalysts for the Tulum Real Estate Market

1. Staggering development in the Riviera Maya

The government has made it a key national priority to develop this whole region. I don’t need to elaborate too much on Cancun airport, which is Latin America’s 4th largest by passenger volume (after Mexico City, Bogota, and Sao Paulo). Almost 15 million (mostly tourists) flock through its terminals every year. Cancun Airport is even better connected to Europe than Mexico City for example.

Let’s not forget that originally, Cancun was nothing. It was just a stretch of pretty coast. In the 1970s the Mexican government decided to create a resort city there and national funds were used to develop infrastructure and hotels.

So yes, the Mexican government can be rather inefficient in many regards, but it pull this one off as Cancun is now one of the world’s top beach destinations.

The Mexican government is now doubling down. It is building a whole railway system linking Cancun to the rest of the Southern coast and Yucatan. People call it the “Maya train” as it’ll cover all the main tourist attractions such as nice beach towns, airports, Maya ruins, and colonial cities such as Valladolid and Mérida.

It’s not just a far-fetched plan; it’s actually happening. I saw some of the construction and building myself. There are some hiccups due to environmentalists wanting to stop the economic development, but the first stations opened in late 2023 (Cancun airport and Playa del Carmen).

Importantly, Tulum will be one of the key stops (scheduled for Q4 2024). One must take a two-hour taxi or bad public transport to get from Cancun to Tulum, a turn-off for many people. In the future, they will be able to zip between the two cities easily.

One of the drawbacks of Tulum is that it sometimes feels a little small, so once the train link is established, people can easily get to Cancun to do what they need to do there. This extra accessibility is a major catalyst.

Additionally, the government has recently opened a second international airport in the region, in Tulum. I discussed its impact on the Tulum real estate market with my realtor Luigi.

Video: The new Tulum Airport

https://youtu.be/2hQ4j_TTQzk

The airport is already operational and is a 30 minute drive from Tulum. There will be direct flights to Chicago, Dallas, Panama, Mexico City, Houston, Toronto etc. and is a big catalyst for the Tulum real estate market.

2. Digital Nomads

The reality is that a few hours flight away from Tulum is a massive market of high-earning Americans who simultaneously realized a few things:

1. They can work almost entirely remotely.
2. They can work from abroad, thus leaving behind an increasingly toxic environment. This perception of toxicity applies to Americans of all political stripes.
3. They can live a quality life for less money abroad and, in many cases, can save on taxes if structured properly (feel free to get in touch with my tax consultants)

Millions of Americans have either reached these conclusions, or soon will. Europeans too, but the main market in Tulum will be North Americans as they are closer, the time zones are the same, and they earn more than Europeans so are inherently more interesting target customers.

First-time American digital nomads will stick to the name brands in terms of travel destinations, which is bullish for Tulum real estate investment.

Tulum is one of the world’s top digital nomad destinations, along with places like Chiang-mai, Bali, Budapest, Medellin, and Playa del Carmen.

3. North American political and cost-of-living refugees

The influx has already started, and is bound to grow. I am not referring to digital nomads who move here for a few months or a year before bouncing off somewhere else. I am referring to people, of all political stripes and ages, who move down to Mexico full-time. They sometimes have online businesses, but often they still have businesses back home which someone manages for them, they are retired, they live off passive income, or start actual businesses in Mexico.

I have met a few types of such people:

Liberals who fear a right-wing dictatorship in America

I’ve met a few of those. They fear that they are gradually losing their rights in America (recent supreme court rulings) and that the country is just waiting for a radical turn to the right.

Conservatives who fear a left-wing dictatorship in America

They feel the federal government is after them, that the IRS will persecute people, and that their rights and freedom of speech are under attack.

Apolitical Americans who are sick of all the politics in America

They just want to live in peace away from all the nonsense. The beach in Mexico is a good destination for this.

Europeans fleeing conflict

Tulum has a lot of Ukrainians who fled the conflict, and Russians who relocated to flee the sanctions. Increasingly, forward-thinking Western Europeans are preparing Plan Bs outside of Europe as they feel their governments are behaving too aggressively. They fear that their governments will draw them into yet another war as they did in WW1 and WW2.

Cost-of-Living Refugees

As inflation eats away people’s savings in Western Europe and North America, and as the healthcare systems gradually fall into decay (Europe and Canada) or become too expensive (America), many people will move down South where the cost of living is lower.

Granted, Tulum is not the cheapest destination in Mexico, let alone in Latin America. But it is conveniently located, English is relatively widely spoken, and it is nevertheless affordable and comfortable. We can expect tens of millions of such Westerners to leave the West in the coming decades. Tulum will attract quite a few of them, especially as obtaining residency in Mexico is easy.

Investors must understand that not all such people are “cheap”. If you earn $70,000 in Illinois you can live a decent enough life, but in Mexico you will live extremely well.

Same thing with Europeans, €30,000 per year in Belgium will afford you an average existence, but in Mexico life will be more than comfortable.

4. Walkability and cycle-ability

Cancun is all about driving a car and taking cabs. This is not what people want nowadays. They want to fly into their destination, and once they settle in they want to be able to walk and / or cycle around.

Playa del Carmen is known for its walkability. Tulum on the other hand, is know for both walkability and all its cycle paths.

Looking at Tulum’s geography, there are a few clusters where people can just walk around such as in the Centro and in the Aldea Zama and Selva Zama areas. However, going between areas, or heading down to the beach by foot is a bit much.

This being said, it’s close enough that you don’t really need to take a cab. This is why many scooters, ATVs and bicycles can be seen in Tulum. This gives the town nice holiday vibes.

Many cycle lanes are being built, which demonstrates the city’s commitment to such a vision.

5. Tulum as a health and spiritual destination

Tulum is quite unique in the world in terms of its positioning with regards to health and spirituality.

Sure, we have all seen the pictures of wonderful beaches, cool beach clubs packed with “influencers”, and Mayan ruins, but Tulum is also widely known as a place where people go to recharge.

Health bars, vegan restaurants, yoga classes and secular spiritual experiences of all kinds await young Gen Zs and Millenials.

Whether you personally like this lifestyle or not is besides the point. As real estate investors we must recognize that these are huge growth sectors.

Owning real estate in such a place is interesting and unique diversification from a trends point of view. There aren’t many destinations in the world that are positioned in such a way, with beautiful real estate that foreigners are allowed to invest in.

Tulum is unique in many aspects.

Which neighborhood is best to make a Tulum real estate investment?

As Tulum is developing fast, it’s important to have proper guidance to ensure you don’t buy in the “wrong” areas. Though Tulum doesn’t look very confusing on a map, in reality, it’s easy to get lost there due to the many circular roads and an ever-changing environment.

The key point to understand about Tulum is that the Centro is far away from the beach, and that there are only two roads that link the two. You need to either drive or cycle in-between.

Investing in the Centro of Tulum

The Centro is where most locals live but also where you find longer-term ex-pats hanging out. It’s the main strip where you can find shops, restaurants, and bars that are not beach clubs. It’s much more affordable to eat, drink, and have fun there than on the beach.

For this reason, there is demand for rentals, particularly from backpackers, budget travelers, and long-term digital nomads.

I would be careful not to venture more than a block or two north of the highway as this area will never become premium. It is destined to be mostly developments for locals, which are cheap to build and plentiful. I don’t see prospects for interesting capital gains north of there.

However, the core Centro is investable, though hardly exciting.

Hotel Zone

Absolutely lovely area; the reason people go to Cancun. But barely anything is for sale here. It’s all high-end boutique hotels, beach clubs, and cute shops.

People often wonder why it’s not possible to build anything on the third and fourth lines behind the beach. The reason is that most of the area cannot be built due to environmental restrictions and issues with aquifers. This is the core reason why the beach area is so far removed from the rest of Tulum.

West of Tulum

There is a lot of construction going on in this area, but it is done in an unplanned fashion. Most roads are still unpaved, and fiber-optic cables haven’t arrived yet. There is a true feeling of the wild west out here. In many ways, if you want a Tulum-type building with amazing amenities and stunning architecture, you’ll find the best value here.

However, the area is not walkable for now, nor can you cycle around. You need a car to access this area..

It will be nice a few years from now, but it will take time. Much is left to be done. It’s not a bad long-term play as prices are more affordable in this area, and if Tulum continues to develop, it will eventually become a very nice area.

Aldea Zama and Selva Zama

This is my preferred neighbourhood for investment purposes. Why?

The architecture is stunning everywhere, and there is very decent infrastructure and urban planning.

This area has cute cafes, co-working spaces, cycle lanes, and cool buildings with amazing architecture. It is extremely livable and is halfway between the Centro and the beaches. There is a lot of construction going on, and many people are living mid-long term in this area. I would personally make a Tulum real estate investment here.

Video: Visualizing Tulum Real Estate Investment Boom

My Tulum buyer’s agent Luigi, from Montreal, and I spent time in Tulum discussing the Tulum real estate investment market. We also visited a few different areas, neighborhoods, and developments to give people an idea of the true construction boom that is taking place there. These videos are a little older, before the rental market took a dive. So watch it with this context in mind.

https://youtu.be/JPE68WBG9NE

Video: Tulum “Lock Offs”: Unique Real Estate for Digital Nomads and Tulum Part-timers

https://youtu.be/0xMfT9TUy1k

Who Should Invest in Tulum Real Estate?

People who want to spend part of the year in Mexico would do very well making a real estate investment in Tulum

With people who want to mix their lifestyle and a place they can rent out. Tulum is an amazing destination, there is a lot to like about it, and it is absolutely possible to spend a few months of the year there as a tourist, or even obtain Mexican residency, and then rent out the apartment on Airbnb for the remainder of the year. If people want to maximize their ROI, I recommend they list the condo on Airbnb from mid-December until the end of April, which is the peak season.

The fact that the architecture of these buildings is stunning, and that they are packed with young digital nomads from all over the world makes Tulum a fun place to own investment real estate and spend time.

A real estate investment of a minimum of $300,000 using the right structure qualifies the investor for residency in Mexico, and there are many other ways to qualify.

People who like buying from desperate sellers

So much real estate gets sold by developers that you’d think selling on the resale market would not be an issue, as clearly there is liquidity in the market.

Wrong.

Why?

Because the Tulum real estate market is inefficient. Agents are incentivized to sell new developments as the commissions are higher and the transactions easier. If you are patient, and work with Luigi, one of the few realtors in Tulum working on the secondary market, you can find great deals.

People who want rental yields should aim for high-end Tulum villas

It’s a very niche market, but people are making great yields from very specific villas and investments.

Conclusion: Real Estate Investment in Tulum Mexico

Overall I see the Tulum real estate investment market as relatively safe diversification for people who know exactly what their objective is. If you you have the right expectations, Tulum is a very pleasurable destination to be invested in, and you’ll benefit from the various long term catalysts.

Reach out to Luigi for opportunities to invest in real estate in Tulum Mexico.

Luigi, originally from Montreal, has been living in Mexico for many years and even obtained Mexican citizenship. What I like about him is that he also does the secondary market in addition to selling new developments. This gives investors the full spectrum of opportunities on the market.

Available services in Mexico:

• How to Obtain Residency in Mexico
• My Real Estate Buyer’s Agent in Tulum and Playa del Carmen
• Give Birth in Mexico for Citizenship
• My Favourite Realtor in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico

Articles on Mexico:

• 6 reasons against a Real Estate Investment in Cancun
• Making a Real Estate investment in Playa del Carmen – decent diversification in Mexico
• Investing in Multifamily Housing in Playa del Carmen
• Full Guide to Making a Real Estate Investment in Puerto Vallarta
• Puerto Vallarta Investment Case Study with Numbers
• What is a Lock Off Condo & Crazy Architecture in Tulum, Mexico
• Is a house in Puerto Vallarta a good investment? Case study with capitalization rates
• We bought a house in Playa del Carmen, Mexico!

If you want to read more such articles on other real estate markets in the world, go to the bottom of my International Real Estate Services page.

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