After 15 years of stagnation, Panama real estate is now turning around. Why?
- Panama real estate, especially in the secondary market, is now objectively quite cheap compared to other tax haven destinations
- There’s only so much tax haven real estate available in the world
- The Gulf, which used to absorb huge amounts of capital, has revealed itself to not be the safe haven it is reputed to be
- Constant inflow of people leaving Western countries for better taxation
When you consider this attractive residency and add real estate on an upswing, you end up with a formidable Plan B ensemble.
In this video with Matt, we look at a secondary market property in downtown Panama City and run the numbers as well as explain some of the latest market dynamics.
- Get in touch with Matt our Panama City realtor
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The time has come for Panama to shine. It is far from perfect, but with everything that is happening in the world Panama is now in the spotlight again as a prime destination for the foreseeable future.
Join me in Panama City for four days of analysis, real estate viewings, discussions, workshops, happy hours, lunches and dinners. Expect to make lifelong friendships with equally adventurous attendees joining the event.
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Articles on Panama
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- Affordable Tax-Free Caribbean Lifestyle and Real Estate
- The Pros and Cons of investing in the Boquete Real Estate Market in Panama
- How to Obtain the Panama Retirement Visa
- Panama Permanent Residency in ONE trip
- What is the Panama Travel Passport and how to get it?
- The Pros and Cons of living in Panama
- The Secret Third Way to Get Panama Residency – Company Formation for Friendly Nations Visa
- How to buy a gun in Panama – Gun rights in Panama
- Real estate for Friendly Nations Visa in Panama City – case studies
- Buying real estate in Casco Viejo of Panama City – Things to know
- Panama Tax Guide
- Remotely opening a bank account in Panama
- Panama: Qualified Investor Visa Real Estate Case Studies for Immediate Permanent Residency
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Transcript of “Panama Real Estate Market Update – New Bull Market in Panama City?”
LADISLAS MAURICE: Hello everyone from Panama City, today we’ll be discussing the real estate market in Panama City which is turning around. I mean it went through what 15 years of just being terrible.
MATT: Stagnation, it wasn’t moving at all and then over the last 18 months or so we’ve started to see a change in the market.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So we’ll discuss this in detail and then we’ll have a look at this apartment and do all of the numbers, all the ROI numbers because you can actually see that we can now get net rental yields that are much higher than last year because there’s just so much more rental demand. But first, I think let’s contextualize.
History of the Panama real estate market
LADISLAS MAURICE: Panama for many years was known as a place where real estate was expensive and where there was a bubble. And effectively for 15 years prices did not budge whatsoever. So actually now when you look at Panama City especially secondary market real estate, it’s actually very cheap by global standards for a tax haven. Typically in the industry internationally we like to say that real estate cycles are about seven years. Panama had such a bust that it needed you know two cycles to go through the inventory and this process is still kind of ongoing.
Signs of a new bull market in Panama City real estate
LADISLAS MAURICE: What have you seen exactly Matt? What are the first kind of burgeoning points coming out?
MATT: We’re seeing a lot of movement on the pre-construction factor. You know the the developers are are producing properties where two years ago they were selling at 3000 a meter on average, now they’re up to 3500, 4000, even the luxury market reaching 5000 dollars a meter. It’s a jump that we haven’t seen in years. And going back to your earlier point, developers in the early 2000s just were building out the entire city, so there was too much inventory, there was too much supply not enough demand and now after 15 years it’s catching up.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Tell us about the secondary market because this is a secondary market apartment.
Rental apartment demand in Panama
MATT: Sure, the secondary market again is catching up. A lot of that has to do with the rental demand. Inventory’s very low on rental right now so we’re seeing about a 20 to 25% increase in prices in the last 12 months.
LADISLAS MAURICE: That’s insane.
MATT: Yeah, it’s it’s a huge huge markup because there’s just not enough inventory so it’s driving up rental prices for all of the expats that are moving to Panama. And now as that’s rising we’re seeing the secondary market their prices going up as well. I’ve seen those prices rise in the last year, let’s call about 10%.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So rents on the secondary market have gone up about 25% and real estate prices about 10%?
MATT: On average I’m seeing about 10% across the market.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Okay. You can see as a real estate investor when you hear numbers like this you can see why this is interesting especially when you ask yourself why, right? The why of the real estate market in Panama doing better is is important. In the past historically 15 years ago it was a lot of speculation, money laundering, etc etc.
Panama as the last viable tax haven
LADISLAS MAURICE: Now it’s actually people that are moving here because there aren’t that many other alternatives in the world. We see the situation in Europe which keeps getting worse and worse from a taxation point of view, from a safety point of view. We see the situation in the Gulf. I mean for many people Dubai is just not an option anymore.
MATT: That’s right. We’re seeing a lot of folks that were on the fence deciding between Dubai and Panama. Since the start of the war they’ve been pushed over towards Panama and we’re seeing a lot more demand from those investors who are deciding where they wanted to put their money.
LADISLAS MAURICE: And people moving from the UAE as well. Are you starting to see this as well?
MATT: We are seeing that as well. Recently had a couple of high wealth clients that moved from Dubai over to Panama because of concerns about the you know the current global climate.
LADISLAS MAURICE: You know, Dubai was always pitched as a safe haven. I never pitched Dubai as a safe haven by the way it’s it’s hard to be a safe haven when you’re a small country with an extremely aggressive foreign policy right across from Iran. So you know things just kind of worked out a certain way.
But effectively a lot of these people need to go somewhere. Where are they going to go? Are they going to go to Europe? Probably not. At least not the ones with money. Are they going to go to Thailand? Yeah, a lot of them are but they’ll figure out that there are quite a few tax issues that come with Thailand especially in the long run. Are they going to go to Malaysia? Sure. Malaysia’s a great option. Affordable, you know easy to get residency, no taxes on worldwide income. Perfectly fine. People who lived in Dubai they’re used to the the Muslim aspect fine. Singapore, Hong Kong hard to get into increasingly hard to get into. So this removes most of the market. And then you look at the rest of the world and you’re left with not that many options objectively. You know Paraguay sure but I mean it’s moving from Dubai to Paraguay is a bit of a mindset shift. You know Costa Rica, places like that with territorial taxation also it’s not a big city vibe so you’re left with Panama. And I’m certainly not sitting here saying that you know Panama’s the new Dubai let’s just be very honest.
Panama vs. Dubai lifestyle
LADISLAS MAURICE: I mean we just need to look at the view here. It is not as pretty as as Dubai let’s face it. But it’s functional. It works. If you want to come here and massively reduce your taxation, not pay any taxes and you structure things well you can effectively end up paying 0% taxes in a very safe environment with decent infrastructure, decent schools, good airline, blah blah blah. So people are coming here.
MATT: People are coming here and property taxes are low. Also because of Copa Airlines being able to fly direct to just about anywhere in the Americas is very attractive for people that want to travel or want to even go back to the States to visit family. It’s very easy connectivity to get in and out of Panama.
LADISLAS MAURICE: And you still have the usual flock of Canadians coming down here and Americans for their own political reasons.
MATT: Flock is a great term because a lot of them are snowbirds. They’re flying down just for the winter. A lot of the properties we sell people are only using for three or four months out of the year and then they fly back. A lot of Canadians, a lot of Americans coming down because of either taxation or just the political climate in general.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, so that’s ongoing and that’s always been like that. Europe is just getting worse and worse. Dubai’s decreasingly an option.
Jewish community in Panama City
LADISLAS MAURICE: I saw today going… I was at the mall and I mean Panama has a very large Jewish population. Those Jews were not speaking Spanish. They were speaking Hebrew, they’re speaking German, French, American.
MATT: Yeah, it’s an Israeli hub now. There are certain pockets in Panama City, Paitilla, Punta Pacifica come to mind that you have large Jewish communities but even outside of the city there’s places like Pedasi and Venao where it’s large Israeli communities. Specifically Israeli but we’re also seeing a lot of American Jews moving down to Panama as well because it is you know it’s a very strong Jewish culture locally.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So a lot of Israelis are moving here.
MATT: Absolutely.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, I was speaking to a I was getting a new SIM card at the at the shop right before we met and I was speaking to a Swiss Jew and he was moving here because he he didn’t feel safe in Switzerland anymore. I mean I don’t know what to think about that like Switzerland’s pretty safe but he didn’t feel safe in Switzerland anymore and you know explicitly as a Jew and he’s moving here to to Panama. And I think that’s also a big market.
MATT: Absolutely. Huge market for us right now.
LADISLAS MAURICE: What percentage of your clients for investment are Jewish now versus let’s say five years ago?
MATT: It’s tough to track a number like that but I would say we’ve seen a sharp increase. Probably you know I’m probably seeing 50% more Jews coming in mostly from the US. The Israelis tend to stick with more of the Israeli or the stronger Jewish community but as far as the American Jews go we have seen a large increase from the Northeast and from South Florida.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Cool. So look, as a real estate investor I like all of these signs. There are people with money from all over the world that are coming here each for their own specific reasons and who feel very strongly about their their motivations for moving to Panama.
Luxury real estate price changes in Panama City
LADISLAS MAURICE: I like the fact that it’s not just you know Panama that’s attracting people it’s also people just don’t really have that many alternatives. You’ve seen the more prime properties go up in price?
MATT: I have. Yeah. Last year in Costa del Este they were typically trading around 2000 to 2100 per square meter and now I’ve seen that go up to 2200, 2300, some buildings even 2400. They’re larger units they’re three and four bedrooms they’re about 350 to 400 square meters but to see a price increase like that over 12 months in Panama is just unheard of.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So I think the whole market is going to to catch up effectively. Capital is struggling to find places to go to these days especially in real estate. That safe haven market destruction in the Middle East is huge. It’ll take a while to to recover because they they will now go through their own big crisis. Dubai even if the war were to to stop tomorrow they have massive supply coming. They’re going to go through their own seven year at least seven year cycle. You know now’s the time I think for for Panama to to shine.
So as much as the past years when I come here with you Matt and I’d say well you come here to Panama it’s a plan B you get your residency and you have this real estate it’s not too expensive don’t expect too much you know you’ll make 3% yields and you know your money’s here. Now now I’m actually like well actually I think you can actually probably make good investments here and get the residency visa out of it. By the way we can help with all the residency visas you know 200,000 dollars investment in real estate gets you residency here if you’re from typically a developed country and 300,000 immediate permanent residency if you’re from anywhere in the world link below.
Tour and ROI calculation of $200,000 apartment in Panama City
LADISLAS MAURICE: Let’s look at the specific apartment. I like it a lot. The numbers are quite interesting. So tell us Matt a bit about where we are you know the age of the building all that just give us the metrics.
MATT: Sure, so the building was constructed in 2009. This particular unit is a high floor 26th floor 112 square meters so a one bedroom loft. It would rent quickly for about 1600 dollars a month fully furnished as you see it now. If you were to list it on a Monday it would be rented by Friday.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So like that. Okay. 205,000 dollars? We add a bit of closing cost, we have the legal cost, a little bit of you know renovations like this horrible mirror behind removing that, um you know the fridge but the rest is is pretty fine. Occupancy rate we put 92% but you think it would be higher?
MATT: I think it would be higher. Uh if you really wanted to stretch it and try to get an extra 100 to 200 dollars a month you know then it’s going to take me three weeks to rent it out. Considering if you could rent it within a week I think yeah 92% is really conservative.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So then we take your property management 10%, your fees for finding tenants which is one month but on average people stay about 18 months. What’s the property tax?
MATT: Property tax is little over a thousand dollars it’s 1020 dollars per year. It’s a higher tax bracket because it’s an investment property.
LADISLAS MAURICE: But still I mean it’s still pretty cheap. And there are you know there are half decent amenities there’s a half decent pool there’s a half decent gym parking all of that. HOA is cheap.
MATT: Yeah HOA is 179 dollars a month so carrying costs for a property like this are quite low when you compare to the rest of the market specifically Panama in general. The appeal for this property more than an investment but the people that are going to want to live here are going to be either a young couple or single person that wants the walkability of the neighborhood and just a great view.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Tell us about the neighborhood here and help me understand why would I go for a how old is this building again?
MATT: So the building was constructed in 2009.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Almost 20-year-old building. I mean the building is not pretty from the outside let’s you know let’s be honest here. They are building new buildings around here that are visually pretty. Can you give us the kind of the rough numbers price per square meter because here we’re we’re at less than 2000 dollars a square meter.
MATT: Yeah
LADISLAS MAURICE: We’re roughly 1800 dollars a square meter. Uh we end up with a net yield of uh pre-tax of 5% which for safe haven real estate that is probably going to go up in value and gets you a visa I think is a really good deal.
Secondhand versus new construction in Panama City
LADISLAS MAURICE: Give us a comparison with new construction here which is typically what realtors would be pitching.
MATT: Yeah, new construction is you know just around the corner from this building. There’s a property that’s between 3500 and 4000 dollars a square meter that’s currently under construction.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So twice the price.
MATT: Twice the price. Okay.
LADISLAS MAURICE: And in terms of rental, will it be twice the price in terms of rental?
MATT: I don’t believe you would get nearly twice the price. Uh this one we’re getting 1600. I think over there 22 to 2500.
LADISLAS MAURICE: And the HOA will probably be higher.
MATT: It would be much higher so HOA on average in these new buildings is about 3 dollars and 50 cents per square meter. Apples to apples let’s just say it’s 100 square meters you’re going to be paying 350 dollars per month almost twice the price.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Twice the price. Not making that much more rental income, but probably easier to find tenants? Though there’s so much demand that you’re going to find tenants anyways.
MATT: That’s right. You’re going to find tenants either way. I would say someone that’s going to come into this building they might be looking to stretch their dollar a little bit more that’s why they see the value in the 1600 dollar a month rent. Same neighborhood just slightly less on the amenities.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Any risk of special assessments in a building like this?
MATT: You always run that risk but this building specifically they were they recently repainted so they’ve got another about four years of shelf life before they need to repaint the exterior.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Okay, so I think the main message here is there’s a turnaround in the market in Panama based on multiple fundamentals. It’s not just I don’t think it’s just a fluke.
Obtaining residency in Panama through real estate investment
LADISLAS MAURICE: If you’re looking to get a plan B residency if you’re looking to you know get that residency permit here in Panama you can always do the term deposit you can also create a company hire yourself. But if you’re looking at the real estate option now is probably the right time to to get in. I think Panama is now officially is entering you know unless you know there’s a massive global liquidity crisis and everything crashes and this and that. But you know this aside this would just impact everything. The market is really turning… has just started to turn into the right direction and if you look around you can find some very decent deals. This supply of safe haven/tax haven real estate in nice walkable neighborhoods in the world is limited.
How to contact Matt to buy real estate in Panama City
LADISLAS MAURICE: I wrote a whole article on the real estate market in Panama City the neighborhoods that are interesting the neighborhoods that are less interesting there’s a link below and if you want to get in touch with Matt. You’ve been a realtor here for how many years?
MATT: I’ve been in real estate here for going on eight years now.
LADISLAS MAURICE: He can help you lock in the right investment properties and then his company… you guys manage how many properties now?
MATT: Right now we’re right around 100 properties across the city.
LADISLAS MAURICE: So you can essentially find the property do the numbers and then hopefully deliver the numbers.
MATT: That’s the hard part.
LADISLAS MAURICE: All right Matt. Thank you very much.
Join us at The Wandering Investor Live Panama City in Panama in September. Four days of digging into Panama as a jurisdiction as well as the local real estate market which is now turning around after 15 years of stagnation. With everything that’s happening in the world especially with what happened in the Gulf there are now more limited options in terms of plan B residencies that are attractive from a tax and physical presence point of view. So immigration to Panama is booming as well as capital flows.
But this event will not just be about Panama we’ll also have a workshop on global plan B strategy and every day delicious lunches, happy hours, delicious dinners and people from all over the world that are interested in these very topics. More information on the event or request your invitation in the link below. See you in September.
