Economics

I have a discussion with Chris to follow up on our earlier conversations about investing in an age of conflict. Chris explains how the current conflicts we are seeing across the globe are a predictable result of economic realities rapidly unfolding. We contemplate how we can best position our lives and our money to endure the uncomfortable circumstances and intense global power struggles that lie ahead.

I join Swen Lorenz to discuss the prospect of capital controls returning to major Western jurisdictions. We give examples of how soft capital controls have quietly creeped back into existence all over the world, and why more explicit and severe restrictions are likely to be put in place on your financial assets in the near future. While no comprehensive solution exists for high net worth investors, we explain why diversification offers the best form of preparation for this new reality.

I took a recent trip to El Salvador to see how the much-publicized economic transformation has progressed since my last visit. I examine the implications of government initiatives such as volcano bonds, the new Aeropuerto del Pacifico and the impact of bitcoin as legal tender. Other key themes like tourism growth, the importance of remittances and US immigration policy, and the consequences of the recent IMF deal are explored as well.

I joined Scott Osheroff for a discussion on where to allocate capital in the current and accelerating age of conflict. We discuss the prospects for emerging and frontier market equities with exposure to Central Asian banking, such as Halyk Bank and TBC Bank, as well as high dividend stocks in Latin America such as Ecopetrol. We highlight the risks of investing and banking in front-line economies such as Georgia, examine the likelihood of capital controls returning to the West and go through an interesting thought exercise on where Chinese capital would flow in the event of sanctions.

I had a chat with Calvin about the repercussions of the reduced throughput of both the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal.

I had a discussion with Professor Tuomas Malinen, Associate Professor at the University of Helsinki, on the outlook for Geopolitics and risk in 2024.