The past week since “Liberation Day” has been nothing short of volatile. I decided to bring Chris on the show as he consistently has a different angle on such matters. The conversation took us on a quite a few tangents, which I guess was our way or trying to make sense of what is happening.
We discussed the following topics:
- The impact of the credit cycle on global markets
- How is capital being reallocated
- Commodities performance in stagflation
- How to position yourself for stagflation
- Portfolio management and diversification
- Real estate investing in unpredictable rate environments
- Investing in Turkey and Latin America
- Investing in Nicaragua and sanctions risk
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Transcript of “What is really happening in the markets and where to “hide” during a credit crisis?”
LADISLAS MAURICE: Hello, everyone. Ladislas Maurice of The Wandering Investor, and today, I’m with Chris MacIntosh, a hedge fund manager. Chris, how are you?
CHRIS: Good. Iโm good. Yourself?
LADISLAS MAURICE: Good. Today, we’ll be discussing what’s happening in the markets, because things are absolutely crazy. Chris, what are your thoughts on the current chaos and circus?
CHRIS: Well, I think the best way to view this is actually from a historical, long-term perspective. It’s easy to get caught up in the short-term noise, if you will, and chaos. But to be fair, this is actually all completely normal. And when I say that, what I mean is, you have a, roughly, 80-year monetary cycle, which we’re bang on. We have a 50-year technology cycle, and then you’ve got a 250-odd year political revolution cycle. We’re basically hitting all of those.
And when you study history and look at what that has looked like in the past, the things that we’re seeing today are just kind of normal, despite the fact that, because we haven’t experienced them in our own personal lives, they feel completely out of whack, and everybody’s sitting going, โWhat is going on?โ I think that’s a good way to kind of view the current world. And from my perspective, our job, of course, is to make money and to allocate our capital and our clientsโ capital accordingly, based on what we’re seeing. Where to start? Gosh, well, I guess the beginning of this is, if you think about there are, essentially, gosh, what, maybe four major events that sort of drive history.
One, you got that monetary credit cycle. In that environment, you have nations that get into a sovereign debt problem, right? That has to be dealt with in some shape or form. The second thing, and these are all tied together, Ladislas. It’s one feeds on the other, often. The second one is domestic conflict, that often begins at a political level. For much of your viewership, I don’t know what percentage, but a bunch of them are probably in North American markets, or live in North America, and so on and so forth, we’re watching that take place, right? That’s this left, blue, green, red team, whatever you want to call it, that’s always existed, but now there is much more tension between those two political groups. And in these events, typically, discourse does not solve that problem. That’s the second driver in history.
The third, which is arguably one of the most powerful, is that this typically takes place and transpires at a time when there is a challenge to existing power structure from an international component. This, of course, is China. We have this power challenge that is challenging the existing world order, if you want, all of that. And then the fourth, of course, is the technological changes. And the technological changes often accelerate or allow for those things to transpire. In other words, if we looked at it purely, say, from a military perspective, much of the warfare today is being conducted via things like satellites, drone technology, all of those sorts of things. That is being challenged at a sort of national level.
China and Iran actually is the leader in drone technology. The US is still very dominant in technology. But there’s essentially a conflict that comes about, and the conflict is also accelerated by those technological changes. That’s, I guess, the framework for where we’re at today.
The impact of the credit cycle on global markets
CHRIS: The events that we’ve just been witnessing over the last, I guess, week are based on the first component, which I talked about, the credit cycle. And so, there’s, obviously, a huge issue there. And we could talk about that, because that comes into very much our asset allocation that we do in our hedge fund and we talk about in our publication.
And the key thing that I want to point out there, Ladislas, is that ordinarily, when you have an equity market selloff, a portion of that capital gets invested into bonds. If you go back to a lot of the crises that we’ve had in the past, you might have had $7 trillion, $8 trillion, or whatever, is lost in the equity markets, and then another $3 trillion, or $4 trillion is made in the bond market. Yeah, everybody loses money, but there’s a counterbalance, which, of course, is why there’s something called the risk parity trade, which is something that’s been parroted by pretty much everyone that has come out of any university over the course of the last 20 years. And the idea is that, is that if you’re in an equity and a bond split, then you’re protected, to some degree.
That story, we’ve been making the case that that story is no longer going to play out, and I can’t go into it now, just because it would take too long. But there’s many, many reasons why you’re not protected by earning bonds in an equity sell-off, and vice versa. And the reason that I point that out is this is exactly what we’re watching. We’ve had one of the largest equity drawdowns in history just over the course of the last week. Simultaneously, I think, was Monday, Monday, we had the 10-year US Treasury was trading at 3.8%. When I last looked yesterday, it was trading at 4.4%. That’s on the US Treasury, which is one of the most liquid investments in the world. In theory, it should have gone the other way. When the interest rate on the 10-year goes from 3.8% to 4.4%, basically, what happens is you’re losing a shit-ton of money on your bond positions.
What we’re watching now is equities getting sold off, people losing money on equity side of things, and then the other component of their portfolio, which they’re invested into, i.e. bonds, is also losing money. This is a huge shift. It is what I call a capital rotation event, and I believe we are now in it. That’s, I guess, the 40,000-foot view.
How is capital being reallocated
LADISLAS MAURICE: Where is capital rotating to?
CHRIS: There’s a bunch of capital thatโs basically being eliminated out of the credit markets. You got $28 trillion US Treasury market. We can see that there’s a lack of demand, for sure, obviously. But simultaneously, we’re watching, and this is actually before last week. And again, not to diverge from the question, but this comes back to there are signs where capital rotation events take place. One of the predictors of those is gold, and gold relative to any number of different sectors, if you will. You could have gold versus, say, CPI, gold versus the Dow, gold versus the S&P, gold versus the Russell, the NASDAQ, any number of things.
When gold starts outperforming against all or many of those, historically, that is the beginning of a capital rotation process. And for any listeners who want to go and research this, you can look at 1930, 1972, and 2002, which were all capital rotation events. I believe we’re in one now. I just believe that this one is the big daddy. And I say that, I’m not a fear porn guy, purely a humble investment fund manager, but I say that just because the two components that that capital is housed in, or could be housed in, are at such extremes. Those two components are basically your NASDAQ. But when I’m saying NASDAQ, we’re basically talking about the Mag 7 or the top 10 companies in the S&P 500. That’s one pool of capital.
The other, of course, is the bond market, which, for any listeners who probably have been following your stuff, they’ll know that we are in an enormous bond bubble. There is sovereign debt that cannot and will not be paid back. It can be paid back, but not in inflation adjusted terms. Those are two huge issues, and these are predictive as well of capital rotation processes. Now, what I believe we’re in now is this incredibly chaotic sort of maelstrom of violence, if you will, in the markets, where no one really can figure out what’s going on. What’s interesting is, if you go and you look at what going into any particular crisis, what has done relatively well and what has done poorly, those are predictive, typically, of what the next five years will look like. And again, you can go and look at the 1930s, โ72, 2002.
And if that is true, I’m of the belief that it is, and look, all investing, Ladislas, is probability, it’s a matter of probability, and then it’s a matter of pricing that probability and trying to allocate capital on a weighted basis towards probability events, always seeking to have probability in your favor. I don’t know if this is, for sure, a capital rotation process, but on probability it is, we’re seeing the signs that this is likely the case. Let me explain it this way, because I think this is something that people will be able to reference quite easily, because it’ll be in your minds. If we go back to 2022, remember, in 2022, we had a risk off. The S&P was down 20%, 25%, the NASDAQ was down. Bonds also went down. Not massively, but they didn’t get bid. That, I believe, was a big red flag that people should have gone, โOh my gosh. Something’s changed in the markets. This is not what’s meant to happen.โ
What performed well during that time frame was largely commodities, broadly. We can run through various ones. This is ordinarily what happens in these capital rotation events. Capital tends to start being allocated away from risk assets in the stock markets and now risk assets are now being determined as debt, which, of course, they always should have been, certainly when youโve got governments that canโt pay it back. And it gets rotated into hard assets. Gold tends to lead, silver, commodities, energy, oil, things like that. But that is never a linear process. It is incredibly chaotic. And this is why I think it’s important for people to actually look at historical and kind of take that 40,000-foot view. Because if you don’t, you will get whipsawed and you will get caught up in what’s happening today, what’s happening tomorrow? What do the Trump tariffs mean for this country or that country?
Broadly, tariffs are inflationary, and that’s very important to understand, because they constrict growth and supply. Theyโre a tax and taxes are inflationary.
Commodities performance in stagflation
LADISLAS MAURICE: Before we go there, isn’t it a bit counterintuitive that if there is a credit bust, essentially, that money that would flow into hard assets like commodities, like oil, energy, because we would also expect a lot slower growth?
CHRIS: Very good question. In our lifetime, your and my lifetime, ordinarily, inflation has come about as a consequence of growth. Remember the Asian Tigers? And look, we’ve had 30 years of China pulling itself up from its bootstraps, of being a peasant nation, to now being largely a dominant player on the global scene. All of these things were growth-related. This inflation is not growth-related, which is also why we’re seeing so much volatility. Remember, any investment fund manager that is alive today has not really experienced an inflation as a consequence of supply destruction. The closest reference that we could have, and it wasn’t actually supply issue, was the 70s, when you had the oil embargo. You took supply off the market.
Now, to be clear, there wasnโt a lot of supply of oil in the 70s. It was just that the Middle Eastern powers basically said you can’t have it, which is the same as it not being there. And that sparked what we know. This inflation, I would call it stagflation, comes about as a consequence of supply destruction. It comes about as a consequence of supply chains being broken. It comes about as a consequence of higher taxes, whether they be direct taxes or indirect taxes. All of these things are constrictive of supply. Demand can actually fall, but if supply falls faster, you can have inflation. And I’ll give a quick example. You go back to the bird flu in Asia in โ97, you had this weird setup where everyone was worried about eating chickens. You’re going to die from Asian bird flu.
The supply of chickens in Asia collapsed. They slaughtered tons of them, they put them on burning piles. They killed them all. You had a supply destruction in chickens. And consequently, then you had an environment where, because for protein, in Asia, you basically eat pork or chicken. Guess what? Everybody went into pork. Then you started ramping up supply of pork. Now, so you had a destruction in supply of chickens, and the price still fell, because there’s literally nobody wanted to eat them. You had a consequent increase in the supply of pork, but still the prices of pork went higher. Why? Because there was more demand than was available in terms of supply.
The point that I’m making there is that that all took place independent of whether you had inflation in the economy or deflation. It didn’t matter, right, because those things overwhelmed, whether there was more monetary units being printed or not, or more credit being issued or not. What typically takes place here is that you have a supply destruction, and that supply destruction it limits credit into markets. And keep in mind, in the commodity markets, these are very capital-intensive types of industries, so finance is difficult to obtain. And by the way, this is taking place at the same time that your cost of capital is going up. We’re seeing this debt markets coming down, i.e. bonds falling, interest rates rising when theyโre not meant to. That translates into mortgages, what translates into business credit, you name it.
Now, if you’re going to go out and you’re going to build a mine, and your cost of capital is, say, eight points on a 20-year, it’s no longer eight, because the financiers are going, โYeah, well,โ but the 10-yearโs doing this, and the 30-yearโs doing that, and they’re borrowing from there’s all this entire lending mechanism. Basically, they start pricing credit higher, so now it’s not eight points, it’s eight-and-a-half, or nine, or some other number. And what that does, of course, is your business owners, who are going to go out and build whatever it is, a coal mine, they go, โWell, it’s not really as profitable, because the cost of capital is too high.โ They restrict supply, they wait. And they’ll wait until the price goes higher, so even borrowing at 9% not 8% now is still profitable enough to do it. Basically, that’s the financial side of things.
Then, of course, you’ve got transportation, and we could get into a whole range of things there. I mean, you’ve got, like, Trump’s come out, and he’s basically said, โChina is really bad. We’re going to hit them with 125% tariffs.โ The irony behind this is, he’s talking about goods, not services, mostly. Okay, so China might not sell as many goods. The idea now is that America could still trade with, say, Europe. Let’s just pretend for a minute that there aren’t any tariffs in Europe. Here’s the issue, goods are moved. How are they moved? They’re moved by shipping companies. Who owns the vast component of ship building manufacturing? China, 51%. How much does the United States have of ship building capacity? 0.1%.
There’s an ability to not even worry about tariffs, but just to utilize other mechanisms where you basically make back that 125%. And I’m just using shipping as one example. What you’ve got is a super interconnected global economy, and these guys walked in and just started throwing rocks into the fucking cogs. And it’s impossible to know which cog gets jammed up and what the ramifications of that are. But again, historically, what this means is stagflation.
How to position yourself for stagflation
LADISLAS MAURICE: How do you position yourself for this? Because if this is really what’s going to happen, the markets don’t quite understand it yet, so they won’t be playing it this way. The risk here is being too early.
CHRIS: The risk is too early, but a lot of this also comes down into time frames. If you’re a trader, this is a very good time for you. Why? Because traders actually don’t care which direction the market’s going in, they just care that it goes somewhere, because they’re trading volatility. There’s, obviously many, many different methodologies to trading, whether it be momentum or whatever the case is. But if you are of that mindset and you have skills in that place, you will do quite well, potentially, in this environment.
On the other hand, if, like me, you are a long-term, deep value investor, my belief is that you have to take that 40,000-foot view and say, โOkay, what is taking place? How do I try and protect my capital over a multiyear time frame?โ Because, frankly, for myself and many of my clients, it’s not that we’re trying to make a ton of money. You’ve made money, now you want to protect it. Protecting money is more difficult. How do you do that? Again, it comes back to trying to understand those capital rotation events. In the short to medium term, I expect incredible volatility.
You could sell puts and then just pick up things that you want to own at a better price, should they get there, and if they don’t get there, you pick up the premium. That’s a little bit of a sophisticated strategy. Many of your readers might not be familiar with it, and they might not want to do it, and that’s fine. But what I would do is look at the sectors that ordinarily perform well in a stagflation environment, and then decide what sort of weightings you want across them, and be very diversified across sectors and geographies, because there is so much chaos that can take place. You don’t want to get a sector right only to find that X country, like, if you’ve got some equity that you’re holding and it has all its assets in X country, and X country now gets hit with tariffs or gets rationed. Remember what happened with Russia and our equities?
LADISLAS MAURICE: I can share a personal anecdote. I remember selling some bitcoin that I rode from $700 to $57,000 in 2021. I sold some bitcoin. I was, like, โCool, Ladislas. Just get some deep value stuff with some high dividend yields. Don’t speculate on it too much.โ Then I bought a bunch of Russian stocks. [laughs]
CHRIS: [laughs] There you go. Look, it’s fine to have Russian stocks, it’s fine to have Chinese stocks. It’s fine to have these. But I like to say that risk can’t be eliminated, it can only be managed. That was a massive gain that you had. I don’t know how much money you had in, but it almost doesn’t matter how much money you had in. You made a lot of money. Now, if you’d put all of that into Russian equities, and you’d come to me and said, โI’m doing that,โ I would have suggested that’s not the best strategy. What I would have suggested is saying, โOkay, let’s put maybe 5% into Russian equities.โ Or, if you want to go a bit balls to the wall, go for 10%, but to put everything into that would– Anyway.
Portfolio management and diversification
CHRIS: But look, the same is true with Bitcoin, right? People don’t like to talk about a lot because it doesn’t sound sexy, and it doesn’t get clicks and views. But I don’t know any fund manager that is actually worth their salt who doesn’t pay a huge amount of attention to portfolio management, position sizing, and waiting. It’s the newsletter writers or whatever YouTube personality to come and go, โThese are the five stocks you need to own for 2025.โ Iโm, like, the moment I hear that, I know the guy’s an idiot, because it’s not true.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, that’s why I’m very diversified across asset classes and across geography. And at any given point there is something blowing up in my portfolio, but at any given point there’s something that’s doing great in my portfolio, so I always sleep well. I never have sleepless nights over investing, though I do this for a living.
Real estate investing in unpredictable rate environments
CHRIS: Yeah. What are you seeing? Because your focus is largely on real estate, and real estate, at least in developed markets, is highly concentrated or at least affected by interest rates. Where are you looking and what are you focused on there?
LADISLAS MAURICE: There are two ways to play it. One way is to just buy deep value real estate in countries that don’t have much credit at all, because credit simply doesn’t matter. And there are a few countries, I mean, in Africa and Latin America, and a lot of parts, even in some places in Europe, there just isn’t much credit in the system. If the credit markets blow up, there’s very little short-term impact. Long-term, yeah, money from overseas, etc. But generally speaking, it’s safer from that point of view.
And the other way that some people like to play it is actually to get a bunch of credit, but fixed rate lever, and then just wait for inflation to kick in. And then just make sure you make enough to cover your payments. That’s another way to play it.
CHRIS: Yeah, I mean, if you’re in that space, if I was purely a real estate investor, I would probably be sitting on my hands right now and simply acquiring long-term lines of credit, fixed. Because I think what’s going to happen is the central banks will step in when they have to, but they’re going to let shit blow up first. And then what I think they’re going to do is they’re going to try and cap rates and just let inflation rip.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah. In markets where you can lock in your rate for 20 years, 30 years, go ahead. But in markets like the UK that are particularly dangerous, where you’re being told, โIt’s fixed, it’s fixed,โ everyone signs, and then actually it’s fixed only for five years, [laughs] these people get hit hard. Itโs really, in some markets, it’s possible to do this, and other markets, it’s not.
CHRIS: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I mean some of the most susceptible markets I can think of are like Australia, even New Zealand. Firstly, those credit markets are not deep enough, so they’re always borrowing offshore, so they’re highly, highly risky from that aspect, they don’t have control of their own credit markets. But secondly, you’re fixed on debt goes out to five years max. The vast majority of mortgages, residential mortgages in Australia and New Zealand are sitting on a two-year fix. That’s fucking terrifying.
LADISLAS MAURICE: It is. It is.
CHRIS: It’s terrifying.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Australia, Canada, I would not touch these housing markets with a 10-foot pole.
Investing in Turkey and Latin America
CHRIS: No, we are in agreement. What’s your view on– I know Turkey’s gone up a lot, but they still don’t have credit. [laughs]
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, or they had credit, and then it all just kind of dissipated away. But Turkey comes with its own set of risks. Turkey comes with political risk.
CHRIS: Yeah, noncredit risk.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Turkey comes with sanctions risk. Turkey comes with a whole bunch of risks. I still think it’s amazing for the citizenship. To put $400,000, get the citizenship for generations down the line. I mean, this is really, really valuable. But just purely for the real estate, I mean, we come back to the discussion we were having before on position sizing, if you’re putting 5%, yeah, whatever. For citizenship, you can put more, because there’s a real objective there, but just purely the real estate, I’d be a little careful.
CHRIS: Yeah, yeah. And in Latin America, what are you looking at there? What’s most attractive to you?
LADISLAS MAURICE: In Latin America, a lot of these markets had a pretty good run. Initially, when I went into Latin America, my strategy was to invest in local markets where there were a lot of Americans and Canadians moving to, because I knew that there would be a lot of capital appreciation, people would use money from back home, from all the silly money, all the capital gains, all the crypto stuff, all that, money would go into these markets, so I positioned myself accordingly. And these markets went up.
Now that the good times are potentially over or aren’t going to be as good times as before, I wouldn’t expect those markets to do fantastic. I think they would just be stable. We are seeing a rotation of capital from Republican to Democratic money, [laughs] so there’s a lot of that happening in Latin America, in kind of an expat-focused places. I’ve met some of these people, โWe’re so back. We’re so back. Yeah. Why am I in this Latin American shithole? I can go back to the US now.โ Then the Republicans go back to the US, and now it’s they’re literally selling to Democrats that are fleeing tyranny in the US.
There’s a bit of capital rotation within Americans and Canadians, but I would say that those markets for now are just decent markets to just park some money, but I wouldn’t expect too, too much.
CHRIS: In agreement. What about Argentina?
LADISLAS MAURICE: Argentina is, will the guy pull it off? That’s it. That’s what it comes down to. Will the guy pull it off? Like, the bull market has started in Argentina, I’m very optimistic for the real estate market in Buenos Aires, if he pulls off the reforms. Are Argentines going to be patient enough to endure whatever they’ll have to endure? Because it’s only the beginning. I mean, you don’t undo 50 years of socialism in, like, 18 months of reforms. And we’re dealing with a country that culturally has a short-term orientation, so I’m not too sure how much–
CHRIS: Theyโve had to. Theyโve had to, that’s the thing.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, for a year-and-a-half. Can they take another three years of this? I don’t know. Weโll see. I’m bullish if the reforms continue. It’s a bet, essentially, do you think Milei will pull it off? Buy Argentine assets. If you don’t think he’ll pull it off, you’ll just buy something that’s pretty cheap anyways, and whatever.
CHRIS: Yeah. Yeah, I think what you’re looking at there is downside risk is fairly mitigated in these environments where credit is being constrained and there’s no, I mean, Argentina, the credit had been massively constrained, so.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah. And now creditโs coming. I mean, this itself, it’s like the complete opposite of the credit cycle you were talking about. Credit is now coming back into the system.
CHRIS: Credit is coming back into the system, but it’s coming back into a system which had, like, no credit. [laughs]
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah.
CHRIS: And then you get the other component behind this is equity multiples. Equity multiples land up being a function of stability of credit. You look at, say, Brazil, Brazil went from, what was it, 6.5%, 6% or something to, like, 14%, and then your equity multiples collapsed. I think that’s what’s in store for much of the developed world, i.e. the price that you’re going to pay for an equity is going to be much, much lower as a consequence of the fact that the whole credit function becomes much more expensive. The opposite is now taking place in Argentina, in that you’ve got an environment where equity multiples were super, super low, almost free, and now you’re introducing credit and stability in the exchange rates and everything else. Just overnight, Milei just repealed and got rid of the restrictions on dollar purchases, and so it’s pretty interesting.
Investing in Nicaragua and sanctions risk
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah. I mean another example of deep value plays where there is no credit in the system is Nicaragua. I’ve been buying plots of land in Nicaragua in select locations. But then again, geopolitics come in. The gentleman in charge has a target on his back. [laughs] The Trump administration is very much against the political class in Nicaragua. For now, they haven’t really done much, but there’s the real risk of sanctions once he’s a bit less busy with other parts of the world.
And then also, one of the theses for investing in some of these Central American countries was the fact that the Biden administration had opened the borders, so all the unemployed, under-employed, and criminals of Central America, the ones that had some level of initiative, they all went to the US, made some money, sent money back. And then what would people do with this money? They would just build housing and develop the housing market. Now that we’re talking of now we’re hearing Trump saying, oh, like, Nicaraguans are on the list, together with a few other countries of people, if they get caught, they get sent back.
People say, โOh, that’s good for the rental market.โ It’s like, no, we’re actually talking of people being [laughs] sent in planes. They’re not coming back with a lot of money. That’s not great for the rental market. They were better in the US.
CHRIS: No. No, that’s not FDI coming in.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, that’s not FDI, exactly. [laughs] That’s a security risk coming.
CHRIS: Yeah.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Even where you do find really deep value, you really need to look at the whole geopolitics of it. I’m still investing there because it’s just so cheap, and it’s a really small allocation, and it’s like long-term. But it’s the volatility, like you were saying, is going to be sky high, not just in terms of the markets, but in terms of politics as well. And we need to be mindful of these citizenships that we have and that we use when we make investments in these countries.
How to subscribe to Capitalist Exploits
LADISLAS MAURICE: Fantastic. Chris has a really interesting newsletter that I’ve subscribed to for a number of years. I don’t necessarily endorse everything that’s written in the newsletter, but as part of my portfolio of media that I read, Chris’ monthly newsletter is part of it. Really interesting. You gave my followers a $1,000 discount if they subscribe using the link below. That’s quite interesting. I think there’s a one month free. Correct?
CHRIS: Correct, yeah. Yeah, so you can check it out, and if you donโt like it, thereโs no fee.
LADISLAS MAURICE: Or, one-month money back guarantee, something. Essentially, it doesn’t cost you anything to try. There’s a link below. And Chris, thank you very much for your time today. Really appreciate it.
CHRIS: It’s my pleasure. Always good to chat, Ladislas.
