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I like to catch up with Lobo every once in a while. He’s been making some pretty good calls over the past few years.

In this video we discuss the commodities landscape, gold, uranium, copper, the Hormuz crisis and how to position oneself in this complex market.

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The Wandering Investor.

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Transcript of “How to Trade the Commodities Market and Gold in 2026”

LADISLAS MAURICE: All right. Hello, everyone. So today, we’ll have an interesting conversation with Lobo, who has been in the mining and commodity space for over 20 years. Lobo, how are you?

LOBO: All right. And I’ll do my best to be interesting.

LADISLAS MAURICE: Look, we are living in strange times.

LOBO: Or interesting times, even.

LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, strange and and very…

LOBO: In the Chinese sense.

LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, very interesting. Every time we watch the news, there’s something going on. That’s for sure. You know, I’ve been interviewing you on the channel for the past few years, and you’ve made some very good calls. So, we’ll be discussing commodities such as gold, oil, copper, silver, uranium, etc., as well as mining, both for majors and potentially exploration companies as well.

What is the state of the commodities market right now?

LADISLAS MAURICE: So Lobo, what are your thoughts with regards to the commodities themselves?

LOBO: I always like to preface any remark, any macro remark like this by reminding the audience that I’m not an economist. But that could actually be a good thing, given how the wrong-way Corrigan of modern economics seem to get everything wrong. I called stagflation ever since COVID, and the war now, things just kind of pile on. And I think that’s been basically right. Nothing happens exactly when or how you expect it to. But that’s where we are. And I mentioned that specifically because it’s relevant to the commodities. But it’s also relevant to the wrong-way Corrigans, because in their models, stagflation doesn’t even exist. Inflation is supposed to be something that happens if the economy is overheating, which is why the supposed cure for inflation is for central banks to ratchet up interest rates and throttle the economy because it’s too hot, generating all this inflation. Nothing to do with money printing. And so, you know, what do they do when they have a cooling economy and high inflation? They have nothing in their toolbox for that. And so, beware of the wrong-way Corrigans of modern economics. There is such a thing as stagflation. How we could just ignore the entire decade of the 1970s, I don’t know, but they have for a long time. And now here we are, the chickens have come home to roost. The implications for commodities… well, let me back up just a second.

The reason why I’ve had this view, and why I say that it’s playing out, is because, well, in the response to the COVID lockdowns, the government solution was the the floodgates of money just opening in a way that dwarf 2008 and the response to the GFC. And now we have this war piling on. And wars, you can look at this through history. Any historian of military conflict will tell you that the knock-on effects, besides the destruction and the, you know, redrawing of boundaries, is inflation. Wars are always inflationary. Governments, you know, it’s existential. They’ll do whatever it takes to win, and that includes printing whatever it takes to win. I think any honest historian will tell you that this was the end of the British Empire, through both World War I and especially World War II, where they just lied and printed like crazy to cover things. And that basically handed the world to the US after World War II. Everything that’s going on right now from the macro perspective is highly inflationary. That is bullish for anything governments can’t print, which includes real estate, other assets, but specifically commodities. And we can dig into them separately if you want from there, but that’s the macro setting. And I think really, everything we’ve seen in the last five years, if not longer, has supported this thesis. And it has long-term implications for investors and speculators going forward.

Is now a good time to buy commodities?

LADISLAS MAURICE: So commodities have risen quite a bit recently. So would you say they’re they’re still a buy, or are you waiting for the markets to to realize this? Because the way you’re talking and the way the markets view the situation are very different. You know, I don’t think the markets have come to terms with this, or don’t necessarily agree with you. So what’s your take on on how to approach it? Wait, or just get in there now?

LOBO: I’m not sure I quite agree about the markets. Remember, Mr. Market isn’t one guy. You know, it’s millions of people around the world in the aggregate of their decisions. And if you look at, okay, gold and silver have backed off recently, but they’re still historically, nominally at least, at very elevated levels. Copper is near all-time highs. Oil is back in triple digits. And you can say, oh, that’s just the war, but it’s there, right? You know, whatever the reason, it is there. And war fits into my broader thesis of stagflation. And other other things as well.

If you look at the Bloomberg Commodities Index or one of these other indices that show commodities as a basket, if you look at it like the last five, ten years, it looks like it’s at an all-time high. If you pull back and look at it big picture, it’s not. You know, we we’ve seen higher periods actually pre-GFC. There was a huge spike in commodities and in farther back. So, it’s not at all-time highs, but it is very high on a historic basis. And this is an index. This isn’t the price of copper that needs to be adjusted for inflation. This is an index. This answers your question in that it’s very difficult for me to say that this is an opportunity to buy low. The bullish case does not mean that, you know, all-time highs are a cheap entry point. Uh, the idea is to buy low, sell high. It is possible to buy high and sell higher, you know, with the greater fool theory, but it is not the same thing. And the time-tested true formula from Warren Buffett to Peter Lynch to Jesse Livermore back in the day, the idea is buy low, sell high. That’s how you make money reliably. You know, getting lucky jumping on momentum can happen, but it’s a completely different thing, and it’s much more difficult. I don’t recommend it. I don’t know anybody who does that reliably. Even Livermore, you know, the rules changed on him multiple times. He had to relearn his game.

So, I see you’re ready with the next question, but just just to really hammer this home, I’m super bullish. I have a macro thesis that I think spans a decade, but that doesn’t mean that you have to buy today. You know, sometimes the best thing to do is actually nothing and wait for that next compelling opportunity to buy low to present itself.

LADISLAS MAURICE: So you think that at some point the markets will readjust their views?

LOBO: Yes. I think there’s multiple points that actually, I’m kind of excited about this. I don’t want to be guilty of Schadenfreude, but if you’ve interviewed Rick Rule, or if your audience has watched interviews with him, he’s been pointing out recently something that I knew but hadn’t heard him quantify before. And that is, he had a ton of money after making money in the early aughts. He had realized a bunch of gains, and he had a ton of money during the GFC. He was liquid. And so, when everybody else was jumping out of windows in 2008-2009, he was backing up the truck and loading up. And he now says that that ensuing period from late 2008, early 2009 up through, you know, the next few years was the biggest period of wealth creation in his entire career.

How to take advantage of a liquidity event

LOBO: I think we may be in for a similar situation now. Now, this doesn’t mean we have to have a crash a la 2008, though I do think that’s in the cards, between the private credit fiasco and the inflation putting a scare into markets, and the war itself, whatever the knock-on effects are. There are so many black swans out there, any one of them could actually create this, and, you know, it seems like the markets just want to buy every dip until at some point they don’t. At some point, selling begets selling, stops get triggered, panics spread, and we can, I’m not predicting the crash of 2026, but I think that’s not just a non-zero possibility. I’d say, I don’t want to put a number on it, but  it’s not 50-50. I don’t think it’s 50-50. It’s lower than that. Between 0 and 50-50, I I don’t want to pretend that I know more than I do. But it’s it’s significant. It’s it’s something worth having dry powder to take advantage of.

And if it doesn’t, let’s let’s put that aside. Okay, no big crash. At some point, the war ends. And we’ve seen oil drop like 20, 30% on just a hopeful tweet. So if it can do that on a hopeful tweet, what happens to oil prices and oil stocks when they actually do make a deal? You know, it’s possible that that doesn’t happen all year, but if if there’s no end of this war, I do think that actually raises the odds of that market crash. So we get a buying opportunity anyway. But it seems to me that Trump really wants out of this war. He wants it over. All the Republicans know that the midterm elections are coming in the US, and this war is hurting him. So I do think they want out. And let me be very clear here, I am not saying that when the war is over that oil goes back to 50 or 60 bucks and stays there and everything is happy-happy joy-joy again. I know Doomberg has been calling for lower oil prices after the war, but I think that’s going to take time. I what I’m saying is, I think the announcement itself will create a buying opportunity.

One of the reasons why I’ve been so patient is because, you know, I’ve been hoping to buy, you know, all year long, but it’s it’s for this reason, because I think that’ll come right back again. I think the announcement of peace will cause a major buying opportunity in oil, and then everybody will be like, ‘Oh, wait a minute, what about all that stuff that got blown up?’ You know? What about Qatar saying it’s going to take three to five years to get back to normal? You know, all these things. I don’t think we’ll take long to overcome the immediate euphoria of, ‘Yeah, the war is over, woohoo.’ So, I not dead certain of this, it’s just one possibility, but I have the cash ready if it happens.

Effects of the Iran War on the copper and uranium market

LOBO: So that’s, there’s the crash is a potential, there’s the end of the war potential, and then there’s also the potential, just the war drags on, or even if it ends, the knock-on effects of the war hit the economy, and that puts your industrial minerals on sale, particularly Doctor Copper, so-called Ph.D. in economics, right? I’m so bullish on copper longer term because there haven’t been enough discoveries for decades. We I think we’ve talked about this before, the thesis for copper is one of the most solid out there. But at some point, the economic ‘Oh, peep’ moment seems likely to create another buying opportunity in copper. So, I’ve listed a couple, you know, there’s also just war scares potentially hitting uranium again. You know, it doesn’t actually affect the real uranium market at all, but it can create fluctuations in spot and in the stocks, therefore.

The way I see it is, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year, Ladislas, but if it’s not oil, if it’s not copper, if it’s not uranium, if it’s not gold and silver, if it’s not the broader markets, you know, what are the odds that nothing bad happens this year, right? With with a corollary buying opportunity associated. So, I’m quite happy, instead of feeling FOMO like, ‘Oh, I got to chase this,’ or ‘Copper’s taking off without me,’ I’m quite happy to sit on a pile of cash from recent profits taken to wait for whichever one of these black swans hit, or whichever one of these golden swans hits, depending on how you want to look at it.

LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, I I agree with you. I have abnormally high levels of of cash. I make a point of not looking at the markets too much, and trying to enjoy life a little bit, because, like you say, there are just so many things that can go wrong, and there is such a disconnect between just talking to people, and people just don’t seem to realize the pending issues we’re facing due to due to Hormuz, due to Hormuz being closed. I’d actually like to discuss this with you, Lobo…

LOBO: Sorry, let me just ask about that. K-shaped economy, they may not really be thinking about Hormuz much, but you certainly hear a lot of complaints from people at the, you know, the bottom rung of the K. Like that’s out there. That pain is out there. And the politicians are pandering to it.

Energy shortages and mining resources

LADISLAS MAURICE: The pain is out there, but they don’t realize the how much worse things probably will be coming. I think that’s the core issue. And I I want to discuss this with you in terms of in terms of shortages, potential energy shortages or shortages of various materials that are used in mining, because you have a newsletter focusing on on mining companies, junior and and major mining companies. How worried are you when you look at your own portfolio and you ask yourself, ‘Okay, this mining company great, good numbers, great operations, but will they get the diesel? Will they have the the sulfur that they need?’ Same thing with exploration, are people really going to be spending on exploration when they’re even struggling to find diesel for actual production? Aren’t there too many operational issues? And they’ll be at the bottom of the ladder in terms of priority for governments. I mean, we see how governments think. If there’s a diesel shortage, they’re going to prioritize flights, government, even consumers, and then always, always, it’s heavy industry that gets that gets rationed away, even more so mining that’s dirty and, you know, people hate it anyways. It appears to be less important than the food producers or whatever, whatever.

Importance of realizing gains and keeping cash available

LADISLAS MAURICE: So, when you look at your portfolio, what do you feel? Or how are you looking at this?

LOBO: Well, okay, so, I’ll answer this like really and then theoretically, because as we just discussed, I’m in an unusual position. I didn’t just take profits on my gold and silver once I had, I got in on gold and silver early. I had huge unrealized gains. So, I realized them. I am almost completely out of gold and silver stocks. You know, before you throw rotten tomatoes at me, audience, not gold and silver themselves. I don’t sell an ounce of bullion, that’s my savings. I don’t touch that, unless there’s a great need or opportunity.

LADISLAS MAURICE: So the gold and silver stock newsletter guy is mostly out of gold and silver stocks?

LOBO: Yes. Yes. Yes. That is true. And I’m, you know, it might make it difficult for me to sell newsletters right now, but it’s the right thing to do in the face of the unknown. I get a lot of pushback. Yesterday silver was up 7% and somebody on X tweeted, ‘Oh, I bet that due diligence guy, what a dweeb. He’s hating it now. He’s probably buying back today.’ Like, they they imagine all these things. No, there is no profit until it’s realized. And whatever happens, let’s say gold and silver double from here in this year, right? And I miss out on all that, I’ve like ranged from double triples, I got one 11-bagger that I realized, right? That money is mine. It’s in my pocket, I paid off my mortgage, and I have it ready to rotate into the next buying opportunity. Like, those gains cannot be taken away from me, whatever happens. So, no, you know, silver wiggling today or gold wiggling tomorrow doesn’t change the math there, or the reality there.

To answer your question is, right now, well, I should also say, maybe it’s a mistake to think of me as just or mostly a gold and silver guy. That happened to be a heavy part of my portfolio. But I’m interested in all metals and mining, and oil, you know, natural resource mineral commodities, that’s my wheelhouse.

So now my portfolio is almost entirely uranium. And which by the way, if you look at uranium during the last four major recessions, it went up to sideways, or slightly sideways up in three out of four of them. And the one where it went down, that was during the GFC, and uranium had peaked in 2007. So it was already screaming downwards going into 2008. So that had nothing to do with recession or the global economy. That had to do with the idiosyncrasies of the uranium market. So, the kinds of things that we’ve been talking about, the uncertainties, the war, the economy, those are the kinds of things that uranium has kind of shrugged off in the past. So if I’m going to stay long anything in such an environment of uncertainty about what happens next, you know, that’s going to be in in uranium.

The answer to your question is, I’m not worried at all. Like like I I almost can’t get hurt. If something that whacks uranium, like a a market crash, yeah, that would whack uranium as well. But, of course, then I just buy more. Now, if that wasn’t the case, if I didn’t have big wins, if I had bought in, let’s say, somewhere in ’25 and I had some nice gains, but I didn’t have these big unrealized gains to deal with, and I was still massively long, then I think my decision-making would be quite different. I would be holding, I would be looking to average down, I probably would be looking to raise external cash to add to my positions, should we be so lucky as to have any one of these opportunities we talked about earlier, you know, garage sale, sell some blood, you know, something to raise more money. Because I do think the one sure thing is that volatility. And by the way, people say, ‘Oh, he’s turned bearish on gold and silver.’ That’s not true. I’m locking in gains is not the same thing as turning bearish. Saying that there’s uncertainty is not the same thing as saying, ‘I know it’s going down.’ So, my base case, for whatever it’s worth, my base case is actually a period of correction consolidation, like we saw after gold went up to 2000 bucks in 2020, something like that, and then the next big move, I think, I still think, will be higher. But I am cautious because, you know, this year’s peak in January, there are echoes to 2011 in the charts. And, you know, I’m not normally a TA, and I don’t place too much weight on just the charts, but it is kind of spooky when you see something like that. And it certainly does not help to just stick your head in the sand or say, ‘Oh, I’m not listening, I’m not listening.’ The idea is to make money, not to be, you know, religiously faithful to your thesis.

How to trade uranium during the nuclear renaissance

LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah, uranium has an ever stronger case now thesis, especially with the, I mean, energy security is coming back to the forefront. And it’s going to come back to the forefront even more so, I think, in the next few months when voters are going to start to feel it, because right now no one’s really feeling it. So, I think it has bright days ahead. But then the question is, how are you playing it? Are you playing it by buying physical? Are you buying, you know, juniors? Are you buying majors that are already producing, because also, if they’re producing, have they locked in their their pricing, and they might have increases in production costs? Like, how do you play uranium?

LOBO: Well, so, a couple of things. One is back to the way you phrased the question. That election thing and so on, that’s kind of US-centric, maybe somewhat European-centric. But in in Asia, where they’re so dependent on exports of energy from the Middle East, like, even if the straits reopen, even if they fix everything, the wake-up call doesn’t go away after. So, I think it’s almost baked in the cake. I think I’ve I’ve been saying for some time, and I think the events since this latest war have just cemented it solidly in place. I think it would take a Chernobyl-scale, not a Fukushima-scale, I think it would take a Chernobyl-scale event to derail the nuclear Renaissance this time. Cuz it’s just so obvious. Like, you’ve got to have something that works when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun don’t shine. And you can’t store enough coal to run Japan, right, but you for years in case of a of another disruption like this. But you can store enough uranium to do it. I think that is just, you know, it’s kind of like one of these ’emperor has no clothes’ moments. There’s there’s no going back. So, I’m extremely bullish, absent, again, a major nuclear accident, I’m extremely bullish in this space. How to play it is really not so much about the market, but it’s about the individual making the investment. If you’re pretty risk-averse, if, you know, you’ve got a a nest egg that you can’t afford to to lose, but you want some exposure to this high-probability trajectory, then you just stick with an ETF that that gives you exposure to the metal itself. You certainly don’t want exposure to the metal itself, you know, stuffing your mattress with uranium is not a good idea, but thankfully there are products out there that may or may not rhyme with SPUT, you know. I don’t want to make a a stock recommendation here, but but you can do that.

If you want uranium, but you don’t know which companies are best or how to get the most leverage, just buy an ETF that gives you exposure to the metal itself. And and that’s something Id buy on the dip if I didn’t have any already. If I want more leverage, if I’m seeking alpha, then, you know, on down the food chain. The majors or major, you know, are the most certain to give leverage to the upside, but less hockey stick potential on down the food chain.

Ironically, there’s interesting enough, something that you said in the way you phrased the question, if I’m a producer, and suddenly, you know, I’m running, you know, some remote project on diesel generators, right? Gensets keeping my lights on. And diesel goes through the roof cuz there’s a shortage. That’s a problem for me as a producer. As an explorer, it’s not. Okay, I might need some diesel to turn the drill rigs and so on, but it’s nothing like operating a mine. And, you know, I may have a depot there with a, you know, a tanker that runs my drills for a month or two, and, you know, it’s very unlikely that in the US or Canada or a place like that you’re going to run out of diesel for very long. You may have to pay a little bit more, you may have a bit of a delay.

But the other thing is about exploration is, since these companies, they’re explorers, they have no revenue in most cases, so they raise money in whacks of new shares issued to the market, private placements, or other means, but usually it’s a private placement. So if you’ve got a great project and and investors believe in it, you can raise 20, 30 million bucks at a go. And that can fund your exploration program for 2 years, 3 years, depending on how aggressive and how big it is, you know, how many drills you’ve got turning. What I’m saying is, the actual work of exploration is in many ways much more resistant to near-term economic wiggles, because you’ve already got the money in the bank. You’ve got your next year’s budget in the bank, you’ve already got a stockpile of oil, you’ve got your geologists on-site. You just keep drilling and and just ignore the market. In theory anyway.

In practice, if you’re exploring for copper and your exploration is going well and you’re discovering more, every drill hole keeps hitting more copper, but copper sells off with the broader market, you’re still going to get whacked. And actually, I think that’s an opportunity.

When the markets fluctuate, and something, the price of something changes without the value changing, that’s either an opportunity to sell if prices exceeded value, or to buy if prices lower than value. And and the fact that Mr. Market can be so, you know, manic-depressive, is actually the very thing that creates opportunity for more disciplined speculators, who can tell when things are overbought and oversold, and act accordingly. And by the way, we started talking about buy low, sell high. This is what makes that happen. This investor psychology, you know, Ben Graham wrote about it almost 100 years ago, it hasn’t changed. And it just repeatedly, time after time in these cycles creates opportunity.

So, anybody that’s maybe new to this space, or your audience isn’t just metals and mining people, so they might be excited by the record highs in copper, whatever, and wanting to get in, the real takeaway here, if you remember nothing else, is FOMO is never your friend. You don’t want to just jump on and chase anything. And maybe this isn’t going to help me sell newsletters to say this, but buy low, sell high still works. And have the discipline, have the patience, wait for that compelling value proposition, and then act. That’s how you make money over time in the space.

LADISLAS MAURICE: Words of wisdom. Thank you, Lobo. With regards to uranium, I actually exited. I I was very exposed to uranium since 2019, 2020. I participated in a lot of private placements early on, and I exited almost all my positions in October. There was a really good run in uranium back in October. Exited my positions, just locked in all the gains.

The difference between gambling and speculation

LADISLAS MAURICE: I, you know, you paid off your mortgage, I bought a house for my family. I’m actually sitting in that house right now, really happy with the decision. But you know, and I said this to to a few people, ‘I got out of my uranium position,’ and they’re like, ‘Oh, so you think it’s bad?’ It’s like, ‘No, I don’t think it’s bad.’ I still have cash, and I’m waiting for an event. And I’m very much open to getting back into uranium. I’m just rating waiting for the right opportunity.

LOBO: Absolutely with you there. And if there’s another war scare that makes no difference, I would buy some of the same stocks I just sold. Oh, sorry. I’m still long uranium more than you, apparently, but I have taken profits. I I just didn’t liquidate the positions. But but I’m risk-free in most of my uranium stocks. Whatever happens next, I can’t lose because I’ve already recovered my initial investment.

LADISLAS MAURICE: Yeah. And that’s how you sleep well at night, and that’s how you make sound decisions, because the the risk of FOMO, I mean, the the appeal of FOMO is so strong right now. Like, whenever you look at the news, you see all these things happening, it’s just, you know, take a step back, take a step back for sure.

LOBO: And by the way, for anybody who thinks, ‘Oh, speculation, that sounds really scary. Im I’m not a gambler,’ this very thing that we just talked about is what distinguishes gamblers from speculators, disciplined speculators a la Casey, the way Doug taught me. And and if you get to that point where you’re right, your thesis is proved out, and you can recover your initial investment and be risk-free, like, how cool is that? To have still exposure to the upside, have potential for extraordinary gains, but zero risk. Or as Doug used to say, Doug Casey used to say, it’s better to risk 10% of your portfolio for 100% gains, than 100% of your portfolio for 10% gains. So it doesn’t have to be as scary as it may sound, ‘Ooh, speculation, ooh, that sounds, you know, alarming.’ But if you’re disciplined about it, you you take your chips off the table as you go, you build your pot, let’s just say, I’ve done better than buying CDs and leaving my money in the bank.

Benefits of Lobo’s newsletter

LADISLAS MAURICE: Look, and I have to say a few good words about your newsletter. I’ve been a paid subscriber for quite a few years now. By the way, I don’t even get a discount from you on my own subscription, though I’m an affiliate. But it’s helped me not only identify interesting stocks, but it’s also helped me avoid make mistakes. And this is where I’ve gotten a lot of the alpha from you, is from avoiding making mistakes. I’d be looking at a particular stock, Id be doing due diligence, I’d think this is all right, then I’d look at your newsletter, after I’ve done my due diligence, you know, I’d look at your at your rankings, all of that to to, you know, try to test my knowledge a bit, challenge myself, and then there would be aspects that I had completely missed on the on the stock analysis, and I just avoided very expensive mistakes thanks to thanks to your newsletter. So, I really recommend it to people. Even your free newsletter is is great. Um, you send out of one weekly email, it’s not spammy at all with uh with good market analysis that isn’t pushing people all the time, unlike some other commodities newsletters that are always saying buy, buy, buy. Um, that’s not what you do as we can, you know, attest from today’s interview. So, you know, there’s my affiliate link below. Sign up to the free one, upgrade to the paid, do whatever you want to do, but it is really, really a good newsletter. And thank you, Lobo.

LOBO: Well, let me add one thing to what you just said. Thank you for that. But it’s interesting, that process you just said of what you’re doing, and I didn’t tell you to do that, but that’s exactly what I do with my interns, is, you know, you do a take, you do analysis, and then compare it to what I said. And there’s that, you know, rinse wash repeat. That process is highly educational. That is my training method for how I train junior analysts. And anybody in the audience could do the same thing if you’re interested in this and, you know, at some point, yes, you can do this at home. Like, it it is a really useful thing to give it your best, do your analysis, and then see what the old wolf has to say, what, you know, and by the way, it’s not just me, it’s my team. So, you know, you can pit your brain against the brain trust here. And if nothing else, you will learn a lot doing that. I think that can help people become better investors and due diligence persons in their own right. So, I do like to think of my services as educational, you know, teach a man to fish rather than just give him the fish. So, thanks for bringing that up.

LADISLAS MAURICE: All right. Thank you, Lobo.

LOBO: Thank you, Ladislas.

LADISLAS MAURICE: Make sure to download my free e-book, ’12 Mistakes to Avoid When Investing in International Real Estate’, which you can find on my website link below. And feel free to follow me on Instagram @thewanderinginvestor. I look forward to hearing from you.